If Bitcoin Has NOT Bottomed, Here's What Could Happen Next

If Bitcoin Has NOT Bottomed, Here's What Could Happen Next



how does the less you help your well and welcome to another update on Bitcoin this is a video which many of you have been asking for so in this video I'm gonna try my best to answer an important question which is this what if what we're seeing on the chart of Bitcoin is not what everybody thinks this is in other words what if this is not a bull market in Bitcoin and what if Bitcoin has not actually bought immed now before I start this video let me just mention this quickly I've already made two separate videos stating the bullish case for Bitcoin so in two separate videos I've already addressed the question that if Bitcoin has bottomed what could potentially happen next so in that video covered the bullish case for Bitcoin and said if Bitcoin has actually bottom then we could be starting a fight wave move towards the thirty thousand and fifty thousand levels on Bitcoin now in this video we're gonna look at Bitcoin from the opposite point of view in other words what if what we're seeing right now on the chart of Bitcoin is not what everybody thinks it is in other words what if what we're seeing right now on Bitcoin is not actually a bull market and what if it's not actually bottoms now I'm sure there's people who are watching this video right now and they're probably screaming that is ridiculous of course Bitcoin has bottom just look at it this is a definite bull market it just looks like a bull market right I mean what else is this what else is this parabolic a movie in Bitcoin if it's not a bull market now let me just say this I do sympathize with that point of view I have to say when you look at a chart like this a Bitcoin it does appear to be like a major bull market and a major uptrend that could take us towards the 20,000 and 30,000 and potentially 50,000 levels however as many professional traders and analysts will know just because the charts may look like they're showing a bull market it does not necessarily mean that it is so while I realize that what I'm going to argue in this video may not be easy however it's important to consider Bitcoin from every angle as I'm sure you will agree it's important to look at the market from every possible angle so we can be better prepared therefore in this video I'm gonna show you three pieces of evidence as to why Bitcoin may not actually have bottoms alright guys let's start with reason number one extreme sentiment now as I'm sure you already know the sentiment readings on Bitcoin are off the charts for example according to a recent report from Jason Gilbert who looks at market sentiment and sentiment as I'm sure you probably know is how optimistic or pessimistic people are in general regarding to Bitcoin and right now according to sentiment readings from Jason Jeffers we are at extreme 20-17 levels in other words extreme 20:17 highs of sentiment or bullishness in Bitcoin and right now according to sentiment readings from Jason Gepard we are at extreme sentiment readings not seen since December 2017 this will come as no surprise to anybody because you only have to read some of the comments and social media to see what people are saying about Bitcoin let me just read you a few here's one comment here Bitcoin has certainly bottoms you will never be able to buy Bitcoin under 3,200 ever again folks we're headed to a market cap of one trillion here's another one 58 K not impossible but I don't believe it here's another one you will buy bitcoins over 20 K or wait forever good luck another one for you of course there is no certainty regarding anything in the markets the probabilities are overwhelming that we have bottoms and most analysts that I know have already or are coming around to this by the way he's right about that the great majority of analysts and people who write articles seem to be of the opinion that Bitcoin has definitely bottoms so bottom line is this guy's a lot of people right now soon to be extremely bullish and here's one thing should remember Jim Rogers one of the greatest gold investors of all time warned about the dangers of the majority opinion listen to this wait what I've learned in like this normally when everybody is thinking the same way you should start at least thinking hey wait a minute cannot be right if everybody's thinking the same way and it nearly always is that when everybody's thinking the same way somebody's not thinking and you should at least examine the other side so guys as he heard there Jim Rogers was warning that when everybody is thinking the same thing we should probably take a look at the other side as well in other words given the fact that so many people right now are so extremely bullish on Bitcoin we should at the very least start questioning this majority view because the majority could be wrong as well all right guys let's go to reason number two another major reason as to why Bitcoin may not have bottom is because of the speed of the current move in Bitcoin take a look at this guy's and notice how extremely fast and parabolic this move in Bitcoin has become a lot of people are saying right now well this is just a normal bull market they are wrong and I'll show you why by the way notice that on Bitcoin is a monthly chart of Bitcoin we're almost at the 50% retracement and not too far away from the 61.8% retracement either which are about the eleven thousand four hundred to 13,000 levels in other words guys in just a few months we have almost retraced 50% of the previous decline in Bitcoin now why is that something to be concerned about here's why look at the previous Bitcoin bull market rally from 2015 to 2017 so this was when Bitcoin bought into 2015 and that was the highs the peak we made near 20,000 in 2017 now take a look at this and you tell me this looks like anything we're looking at right now on Bitcoin this is the weekly chart by the way I think you'll agree with me this looks nothing like what we're looking at right now in Bitcoin here's why number one look how long it took from the previous bottom in the previous crash and the previous bear market a Bitcoin when Bitcoin bottomed in 2015 look how long it took for it to actually recover 50% of its previous decline it took a year and a half a year and a half before it could retrace 50% of its previous decline this time round is taken almost six months something is not quite right here that's not all let's go to this next chart over here in the previous bull market rally that occur between 2015-2017 notice first of all we had two failed rallies this is what normally happens in a bull market at the start of every bull market in a healthy bull market usually we get failed rallies meaning rallies that don't end up anywhere plus notice in the bull market from 2015 2017 you will see how many times Bitcoin came back to test its 21 weekly average this is what happens in a healthy bull market in a healthy bull market you see a steady and measured upward trend in other words a staircase pattern you will see market goes up okay pull back the 21 weekly average and then goes up pulls back to the 21 weekly average and so on and so on you'll see several pull backs to the 21 weekly average as the market moves higher by the way notice something else in the previous bull market notice that during these pull backs at no time that Bitcoin fall below its 21 weekly average in every pullback it protected and stayed above it closed above the 21 we the average that is also something you see in a healthy bull market and again guys as I mentioned before you only have to take a look at a chart the Bitcoin right now and look at it not a single pullback so far not a single pullback at a 21 weekly average we have yet to test this moving average we have not done that yet now it's possible maybe in the next few weeks we will do that we'll have to wait and see but so far what Bitcoin is doing is unlike its previous bull market rally and you could argue quite persuasively that what's happening in Bitcoin right now is not usually what happens in a healthy bull market it doesn't look like what's happened in the previous bull market and here's another thing guys actually what's happening in Bitcoin right now is this market looks too bullish it looks extremely bullish and positive and that could be a red flag you may ask well if this is not a bull market then what is it alright guys let's go to reason number three be waves or bear market rallies the gentleman you see here is Robert Prechter and Robert rector is one of the world's experts on what is called Elliot wave theory you see guys according to Elliot wave theory what could be happening is what's called a B wave or a bear market rally before I go into that let me first of all read this here's what Robert Prettner says in his book the Elliott Wave Principle he says B waves are phonies they are sucker plays bull traps speculators paradise orgies of odd lauter mentality or expressions of dumb institutional complacency or both they often are unconfirmed by other averages are rarely technically strong and are virtually always doomed to complete retracements by wave see if the analyst can easily say to himself there is something wrong with this market chances are it's a B wave so what does a B wave let's take a look at this chart you see guys what we're talking about essentially is a bear market rally so even if you don't follow Elliot wave theory the fact is this principle of bear market rallies is known to most Chartists the last major uptrend in Bitcoin ended in 2017 with wave 5 as you see right there when Bitcoin top at near 20,000 in 2017 it started a major crash I made a drop that was potentially the a wave okay in other words worried potentially dealing with right now the current rally could be a B wave rally in other words a bear market rally which is very common in any bear market then once the B wave rally pleats then will potentially start the sea wave retracement the sea wave move to make a new bottom new bottom potentially below the loads of wave a and then will start the new uptrend in Bitcoin by the way this is also quite important to appreciate sometimes the B wave can go as high as the previous high it made before it started the wave a in other words it's very possible for a B wave rally for a bear market rally to go back to its previous highs the previous high Bitcoin made in 2017 near 20000 so that is a possibility we need to consider as well once the B wave completes we'll move towards a sea wave correction or C wave drop towards the previous lows it made and once that completes then we'll start a new Uptrend towards the 50000 levels let me show you some examples so here's Bitcoin in 2014 and 2015 notice guys that in the previous bear market of Bitcoin something like that actually happened as you'll see here we had a bee wave rally as you see here after the major crash in Bitcoin that occurred from 2013 2014 it had a major rally now a lot of folks at the time thought oh this is probably the next major bull market in Bitcoin look is going above the 21 weekly average and it's rallying higher therefore this could potentially be the next bull market except it was not a bull market this was only a bear market rally as you can see here when that be waved the bear market rally finished he then started the sea wave lower and it actually bought him that near the 200 just below the 200 levels here's the example on gold very similar situation on gold after it crashed in 2011 notice that it also formed a B wave rally which many people thought oh you know what this is the next bull market it's gonna go up to you know 5,000 10,000 won gold it didn't do that it crashed and continued to move lower towards this wave C target here's an example for you in the stock market there is similar thing happened during a dot-com crash of the year 2000 2001 what we could be dealing with right now take a look at this chart of Bitcoin right now in other words something similar might be happening here on Bitcoin let's take a look at this chart so this is the 2015 bottom here we had a 5 wave uptrend which completed back in 2017 and since then we've had this major correction or drop in other words if the currents move in Bitcoin is not actually a bull market what we could be dealing with is something like as you can see here my war is the current rally might actually be let me zoom in on this chart let me show you what they could be dealing with is if it's not a bull market then it's probably a bee wave or a bear market rally in other words guys the current rally we're dealing with is potentially a bee wave retracement maddewar is a bee wave rally which is making a retracement of its previous a wave crash and that means this if this is actually a bee wave or bear market rally which is a probability then therefore once the bee wave completes let's say for example near the 61.8% retracement levels which is about the 13,000 levels then we could potentially start the next sea wave drop the sea wave retracement towards and below the previous lows of the a way from other Wars below 3000 and that could mean a sea wave target of potentially 2,000 and maybe even towards the eighteen hundred and seventeen hundred levels before finally bottoming out and that could start the next major uptrend towards the 30 thousand and fifty thousand levels on Bitcoin so guys in this view what we're saying is that if potentially what we're dealing with is a bee wave or bear market rally but in this scenario the loads of 20:18 near 3100 was not actually the bottom in Bitcoin but simply a temporary low before we complete the bee wave the bear market rally and then we put in the C wave below the lows of 2018 forming a potential bottom here and then starting a next major uptrend towards 50 thousand and as we mentioned before guys there is an extreme scenario as well in the extreme scenario the bee wave may actually go as far back as the previous highs it made in 2017 so in the extreme situation the correction or the bee wave or bear market rally whatever you want to call it could actually go as far high as the nineteen thousand twenty thousand levels before finally topping out they're starting the major move toward the previous lows it made of wave a near the three thousand levels and then starting a major uptrend towards the thirty thousand 50 thousand and potentially much higher levels so these are the two potential snares we're dealing with if Bitcoin has not actually bottoms now I know what you're probably thinking you may be asking yourself right now well how can we know with a degree of probability what we're dealing with Bitcoin right now is actually a bee wave or bear market rally how can we distinguish this from actually a bull market let me say I'm gonna do a separate video on that so in a separate video which I'll publish for you very soon I'm gonna give you my final verdict on what's potentially happening on Bitcoin so we'll go through the potential possibilities where there's a bull market or a bear market rally in a separate video but for the meantime let me just leave you with this one thought on this chart I put a line here as you can see here this blue line that's a 21 weekly moving average that is a level we need to pay attention to because as you just saw previously and I showed you on the previous chart in the last major bull market rally in Bitcoin Bitcoin came back and tested the 21 moving average several times Bitcoin didn't just keep going up forever no it came back down tested the 21 moving average over and over again so guys that's why we need to pay attention now to this 21 moving average if this is a healthy bull market okay if this is actually a healthy and measured bull market what we need this in the next few weeks is some kind of retracement to the 21 moving average something that brings Bitcoin down to test the 21 moving average testing this level and then moving higher again like we saw in the previous bull market and in fact in every major bull market usually see the markets coming back down testing moving averages then going back up again but here's the thing if Bitcoin does not make a retracement and just continues to plow higher just continues to push higher and higher then you know what guys there's something not quite right with this market the problem with Bitcoin may actually be that it's actually too bullish extremely bullish which is one of the actual signs or signifiers of a B wave or a bear market rally therefore guys if this is a healthy bull market we need to see Bitcoin at the end of the day coming back down to test is 21 moving average the blue line you see here touching or testing up 21 moving average and then moving higher again if that happens then it's more likely to be a bull market and indeed a potential uptrend however that means this – if Bitcoin makes a retracement at some point and eventually goes below if Bitcoin goes below 221 weekly average then we need to be very cautious because if Bitcoin moves below its 21 weekly average that actually is a very important signifier and a potential clue that we're dealing with a B wave and indeed the start of a major sea wave correction in Bitcoin now I'll go and cover this for you again in a separate video and final verdict video soon and by the like I said this video is help please give a thumbs up and please subscribe for future video updates thanks a lot bye for now you

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49 thoughts on “If Bitcoin Has NOT Bottomed, Here's What Could Happen Next”

  • Javier Hermosa says:

    Great analysis, Alessio. But don't you think things have changed now with Bitmex and Leverage Trading? People are trying to short bitcoin very agressively and getting burned time and time again, causing short squeezes. Also the lack of liquidity makes this market completely different than 2015-2017. Also completely different than liquid markets like gold or stocks. I might be wrong, but I also think there will be a correction, however the hype is too crazy and price might not go down to 3K again. Your thoughts please, Alessio?

  • Guys Alessio is begging for the crash as he has missed the opportunity to buy the bottom…he wanted to buy at 1800….so he makes these kind of videos in pure frustration….

  • Thank you for this very interesting video. At least you have the balls to go against the masses. What you have shown has opened my eyes and actually makes sense.

  • This all seems amazing to be honest. With the trust I have for bitcoin, it is only good if it ends up to a C-wave. Thats the perfect time to buy even more (fragments of) bitcoin.

  • Ricardo Pineda says:

    Just bullshit, please think about what you have said since 2017. You are not a crytpto trader you always fail and as I said, Good teacher and just that

  • first half:
    just because it took 18 months from the last bottom to a 50% retracement does not mean it has to do this every time. what is that logic?
    i wonder when ppl stop following so called youtube analysts with their illogical and pointless conclusions
    and calling that what happend in 2017 a healthy bullmarket just disqualifies you my friend

    second half was actually good

  • Александр Констант says:

    it is still a bear market. but it can go to 20, 30, 40k. after 40k it will be a bull market)) so start to buy then

  • DragonBallForever says:

    why if You miss boat like always and now You are to scary to buy on curent prices lol You can t think like stock trader in crypto, deal whit that or don t even try pretend you have any knowledge about BTC as calling on each top it will corect its for kids from Youtube

  • technically analysis is not a crystal ball, and markets definitely don’t have to play a specific way, it’s basically flipping a coin, I used to use technical analysis and all it did was giving me stress cuz no TA can tell you for sure you will over think everything, now I only look at RSI and EMA nothing more, just buy low with part of my money and sell high when I feel like it, and I am actually making money, STOP WATCHING TAs, they only do TA for views, one great trader once said, if you can’t explain how you make money to your mother, you shouldn’t be doing this.

  • AussieSteve001 says:

    Sure it may be faster but if bitcoin is going to $50,000 plus then it's going to go higher quicker. Also past history means nothing now that corporations are buying it up. It's totally different now.

  • And every you tuber is bullish right now, makes me think you might be right Alessio. Thanks for your persistence with this by the way I will have some funds ready just in case.

  • what ever happen to following the simple rules of support and resistance, don't try to complicate things with scenarios.

  • You and Tone are actually quiet similar… You are both looking BLINDLY into your charts, and you both have NO TALENT or feeling for the market. Theoretical nonsense :))

  • Links & Affiliate says:

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  • Already bought a million from A to B , if it goes down to C , then buy again all the way down to C, and then buy again all the way up to D. After that , just HODL for the next 5 years.

  • How we can influence the people? Fear? Etc…..bullish or not…..the whales can move the market where he wants…..

  • Hi Alessio! I look at all your thoughts and forecasts regarding the market since June last year, and this forecast is the surest option, which was your channel, which will be in the future with the Bitcoin price, many have already believed in their own, especially with small volumes and this growth was premature, false growth, when many people lose money, smart money will come to the market and step on the moon! And I fully support you, you can even save my comment, because I, we will be right)))

  • Alessio is the only professional in this big mess that is youtube. he is the only one to remain calm and thoughtful, to always consider all eventualities. this video could only be made by alessio. you will not find it anywhere else. and I fully share this analysis on this strange parable, which does not presage anything healthy and solid. I do not buy bitcoin in such conditions, I need much stronger confirmations.

  • There is a fundamental flaw in your analysis, and that is that you are comparing Bitcoin with other assets in the stock market. The truth is that Bitcoin is a one in a life time opportunity and it has never been something like it, so we will see something that we have never seen before. Moon.

  • I think this could be a scenario for the reasons u laid out. BUT ALSO because we can not forget about our mysterious big buyer of $400 million BTC in February of 2018… He/She might want to cash out.

  • Thank you Allesio The Contrarian for your opinion, something was wrong for me with this bull market but I couldn't find right explenation why, now I know.

  • Most people don't trust altcoins claiming there is no utility in buying them. In reality, buying altcoins is like buying a share of a stock. Just like buying traditional stocks of a multi billion dollar company like UBER that doesn't even earn a single penny, but people still buy its stock.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/av/business-48689313/how-can-a-company-be-valued-at-billions-but-not-make-any-profit

    How can a company be valued at billions, but not make any profit?

    Slack Technologies, a messaging service used by companies across the world, has been valued at around 16 billion dollars. It's one of several high-profile tech companies, including Uber and Lyft, going public this year.

    But plenty of companies which are valued at billions are yet to make a profit.

  • Dear Alessio,

    Wave B is a corrective wave.

    B = Zigzag or flat or triangle.

    Do you really think that the current Bitcoin pulse wave is a B wave structure?

    No, it's a clear 12345 bullish wave.

    90% probability that we are not in an ABC or WXY wave.

    Allessio you make your money by scary people and it is normal that in a bull market the majority of people think of higher and higher highs.

    Will we see corrections of 30 to 40% ? surely !

    But the bottom is IN , and we are in a Bitcoin Bull market 🙂

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